Tuesday, December 29, 2009
FULL MOON ALERT: San Francisco, S.B., Lompoc, etc.!!!!!
The Full Moon will be New Years Eve night and so we should watch now particularly that night for this upcoming major shaker!!!!! The exact cities I am guessing are Frisco, Santa Barbara, Lompoc and San Simeon. . . but basically all of California should watch, and especially New Years Eve night and the hours before the ball actually drops and after as well!!! Happy New Years everybody!!!!! EQ Guy
Monday, December 28, 2009
PREDICTION UPDATE: San Francisco/Oakland, San Simeon, S.B., Lompoc!!!!!
This is by no means an official update beyond the fact that it is based on my earlier Official Prediction for California. I have just been watching all of the recent earthquakes at NEIC, the National Earthquake Information Center so close that I just thought I would share my thoughts on the subject with you all tonight. Here is a link to that: (Link is now outdated and I removed it on September 24, 2013)
With the amount of snow and cold not letting up and snow falling almost continuously, I want to continue the alert for California to be getting a major earthquake in the coming hours and days. With an ever increasing number of small earthquakes presently happening around Beatty and Tonopah, Nevada, and Lone Pine, Mammoth Lake, and Trona, California, I just want to basically guess San Francisco/Oakland right here and just thought I should let everybody know. Now, there really isn’t too much basis for that assertion either, mostly just that those locations would indicate to me that the weight of all the new snow pushing against the tectonic plate boundary might be pushing right along that area there where San Francisco marks the plate boundary. Also I want to note that these foreshocks kind of lead south towards the San Simeon area and like San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara/Lompoc area so we might be watching those places, too. Although, this information goes somewhat beyond my usual informative nature and well into guessing based on like intuition and a little bit of just wanting to name the town where the next big earthquake strikes!!!
Thank-You again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
With the amount of snow and cold not letting up and snow falling almost continuously, I want to continue the alert for California to be getting a major earthquake in the coming hours and days. With an ever increasing number of small earthquakes presently happening around Beatty and Tonopah, Nevada, and Lone Pine, Mammoth Lake, and Trona, California, I just want to basically guess San Francisco/Oakland right here and just thought I should let everybody know. Now, there really isn’t too much basis for that assertion either, mostly just that those locations would indicate to me that the weight of all the new snow pushing against the tectonic plate boundary might be pushing right along that area there where San Francisco marks the plate boundary. Also I want to note that these foreshocks kind of lead south towards the San Simeon area and like San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara/Lompoc area so we might be watching those places, too. Although, this information goes somewhat beyond my usual informative nature and well into guessing based on like intuition and a little bit of just wanting to name the town where the next big earthquake strikes!!!
Thank-You again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
OFFICIAL PREDICTION--CALIFORNIA!!! JUST FILED!!!
Tuesday December 22, 2009
To:
The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
From:
The EQ Alert Guy
OFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE
TO STRIKE CALIFORNIA BEFORE JANUARY 12, 2010
It has been a very, very long time since the conditions existed that make it necessary for me to file one of these Official Predictions with the Council. One of the biggest reasons for this is because we have not had too much of a hurricane season in the U.S., or much of a typhoon season either for that matter, while the typhoons we did get seemed to have caused seismic activities primarily in other places around the world.
Whenever there is basically any potential seismic energy at all that I feel might affect The State of California in just about any way at all, I immediately write all out a full discussion such as the one you are now reading, and I spell out in some detail everything that is going on that warrants me filing an Official Prediction with CEPEC.
Todays Official Prediction is based entirely on the fact that a great deal of the United States has just received what is turning out to be a huge amount of snow. Amounts of up to two feet and more were just recorded late this week out on the East Coast, and the Midwest had just previously received snow amounts in the area of one foot with more having fallen since then, and more on the way!!!
Generally, my “Snowfall Resultant” predictions are based on the fact that I was writing scripts for my friends out in Hollywood on the day of the Northridge earthquake in 1993 when I decided that I should do something to help them and so what I decided to do was see what all the things were that happened before that earthquake to hopefully possibly determine what caused that earthquake. What I found by searching the recent newspapers was extreme severe winter conditions all across the United States. These conditions, I reasoned, must have contributed to the plate tectonics movement that then caused the boundary between the North American Tectonic Plate and the Pacific Tectonic Plate to be pushed together!!! The snowfall amounts on that day had been up to four feet in the Sierras and two feet across the rest of the country. The difference between the weather on that day back in 1993 and the weather today is mostly that we were experiencing sub-zero temperatures back then, as well. Higher wind speeds existed at that time, too, like around 55 mph, or you might just say blizzard conditions.
Thereafter, I watched closely for similar conditions to exist, and in December 2003 we again received similar severe winter conditions with a lot of snow and as a result I sent out one of my first alerts based on that information. This alert was followed closely by a major earthquake at Paso Robles, California on December 23,. 2003.
Although my initial investigation on the day of the Northridge earthquake revealed, when I went to the local library to investigate all earthquakes for things that preceded them, that the vast majority were preceded by hurricanes making landfall; and as soon as the next hurricane made landfall that August, I issued my very first ever EQ Alert when a hurricane struck Johnson Atoll, and that resulted in a major earthquake striking at Northern California in the days immediately following me sending out a paper alert via USPS. That was still 1993, I have since then issued many of these alerts and been very accurate, basically having active alerts prior to every major earthquake occurring since the beginning.
Several years ago I became aware of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and while not submitting to them at first due to the nature of my alerts needing then to be written out in the form of a prediction, I have since started submitting to them in this new format. Note that my method for writing is more along the line of alerting the people to the fact that conditions exist for potential seismic activity to occur and NOT that I am in essence “Predicting” an earthquake per se. Therefore I do not necessarily “Predict” that an earthquake is going to happen as much as I wish to “Alert” the people that there may be an earthquake striking in a given place in a given time frame. So, as a result of all that, I want everyone to know that what you are now reading here, is one of my “Alerts” written out in the format of a “prediction” but I do not want to come off that I am “Predicting” an earthquake, rather, I am today just trying to tell everybody that severe winter conditions have been found to precede major earthquakes and that we are presently experiencing severe winter conditions, so. . . .
Finally, the number of days that it takes for all of that snow to push down on the tectonic plate and cause the plate boundaries to push against one another has been discussed in great depth. What I have came up with so far is that it does seem to be an actual measurable amount, however when we are talking about the shorter distance like that from New York to Los Angeles, rather than that from Louisiana up over the North Pole to Islamabad or from Taiwan, north past Russia, down through the Atlantic Ridge, across Central America, and south to Santiago, Chile. . . We have a great difference in the amount of time it will then take potential seismic energy to travel such a distance!!! Therefore, at this point in time, I prefer to just go with smaller numbers of days for shorter distances such as across the USA, while recognizing the fact that much greater distances can take much longer numbers of days, and as would be the case if this major earthquake does not strike California in this minimum number of days, it will still strike. . . Just that it will then be somewhere else like Japan, and possibly at a date beyond the date of January 12, 2010 as mentioned as the end date of this Official Prediction.
There is probably a given amount of time for seismic energy to travel different routes, such as we already know that seismic energy travels at different speeds through different types of rock and that, at this time I prefer to simply sum up that discussion by expressing the range of numbers of days that this upcoming Major Earthquake Prediction for California will be effective, or sometime between the date of this writing and January 12, 2010. Therein giving you a general idea of the number of days it should take for the ground to settle out on the East Coast and push the North American Tectonic Plate up against the Pacific Tectonic Plate out at or near the San Andreas Fault.
Also, the San Andreas Fault is primarily a Slip Fault, and the type of force being generated with this “Weight on the Tectonic Plate” might rather cause the two tectonic plates to push together instead tending more to activate Thrust Faults out there at that plate boundary. Therefore, while such pushing action might cause some movement along that slip fault such as may happen when the North American plate pushes or moves at all, the main source of movement might tend to be at thrust faults out along the California coast, such as are found around Malibu and Long Beach just to guess at two of them!!!
This is why I say this type of plate tectonic mechanism might begin movement at about any time now, and I state the number of total days that this earthquake should strike within as a number similar to how long it took the other major earthquakes to strike after all the winter conditions. As a general rule I have been using like a week or so for the short distances such as across the U.S.. For instance it was Day 18 after Hurricane Hugo made landfall at Charleston, when the World Series earthquake struck San Francisco and like a good week or two after the major snow events struck that the Paso Robles earthquake occurred. Of course it is generally going to take at least a day or so, however ground settling and tectonic plate boundaries grinding against one another will never have an exact amount of days that it takes to cause a major release of seismic energy!!! It is ALSO always possible that this type of plate tectonic movement could RELEASE built-up seismic energy somewhere along that series of fault lines around California and cause this to be a larger earthquake than just the one caused by the great amounts of snowfall. That is that the snowfall could push a portion of tectonic plate to thus release a much more majorly built up seismic energy somewhere and cause who knows what to happen.
The exact amount of Richters Magnitude for this now upcoming major earthquake, I generally assume will be smallish, for smaller amounts of hurricane, typhoon, cyclone, or in this case blizzard conditions; medium sized for medium amounts of conditions; and big for big amounts of conditions; and huge for huge conditions. In the case of the potential seismic energy that I am writing about today, I would not expect this upcoming major earthquake to be as big or certainly not bigger than the Northridge earthquake and not as big as the Kobe, Japan earthquake. Therefore I am saying today that this major earthquake that I am filing todays Official Prediction with CEPEC on, should be about 7.5 Richters Magnitude. That number could increase slightly for every additional few inches of snow received across the country, or about one tenth Richter per additional inch of snow providing it covers a substantial region.
It should be noted that this Official Prediction is talking about a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE that WILL OCCUR!!! While the basis for this Official Prediction being written is for it to be submitted to the State of California, the potential for this major earthquake to occur does not stop at California, nor does it stop after the expiration of this Official Prediction at the date of January 12, 2010 as stated at the top of this report. Although in general, the Official Prediction will conclude upon such a major earthquake striking California, the alert for such an earthquake will continue on in the event that no earthquake strikes California in accordance with this Official Prediction.
Thank-You, again, for accepting this Official Prediction and helping if not today, than at some time in the future, to alert the people when there is potential seismic energy heading for them!!!!!
Respectfully Submitted,
The EQ Alert Guy
EQ/eq
To:
The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
From:
The EQ Alert Guy
OFFICIAL PREDICTION FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE
TO STRIKE CALIFORNIA BEFORE JANUARY 12, 2010
It has been a very, very long time since the conditions existed that make it necessary for me to file one of these Official Predictions with the Council. One of the biggest reasons for this is because we have not had too much of a hurricane season in the U.S., or much of a typhoon season either for that matter, while the typhoons we did get seemed to have caused seismic activities primarily in other places around the world.
Whenever there is basically any potential seismic energy at all that I feel might affect The State of California in just about any way at all, I immediately write all out a full discussion such as the one you are now reading, and I spell out in some detail everything that is going on that warrants me filing an Official Prediction with CEPEC.
Todays Official Prediction is based entirely on the fact that a great deal of the United States has just received what is turning out to be a huge amount of snow. Amounts of up to two feet and more were just recorded late this week out on the East Coast, and the Midwest had just previously received snow amounts in the area of one foot with more having fallen since then, and more on the way!!!
Generally, my “Snowfall Resultant” predictions are based on the fact that I was writing scripts for my friends out in Hollywood on the day of the Northridge earthquake in 1993 when I decided that I should do something to help them and so what I decided to do was see what all the things were that happened before that earthquake to hopefully possibly determine what caused that earthquake. What I found by searching the recent newspapers was extreme severe winter conditions all across the United States. These conditions, I reasoned, must have contributed to the plate tectonics movement that then caused the boundary between the North American Tectonic Plate and the Pacific Tectonic Plate to be pushed together!!! The snowfall amounts on that day had been up to four feet in the Sierras and two feet across the rest of the country. The difference between the weather on that day back in 1993 and the weather today is mostly that we were experiencing sub-zero temperatures back then, as well. Higher wind speeds existed at that time, too, like around 55 mph, or you might just say blizzard conditions.
Thereafter, I watched closely for similar conditions to exist, and in December 2003 we again received similar severe winter conditions with a lot of snow and as a result I sent out one of my first alerts based on that information. This alert was followed closely by a major earthquake at Paso Robles, California on December 23,. 2003.
Although my initial investigation on the day of the Northridge earthquake revealed, when I went to the local library to investigate all earthquakes for things that preceded them, that the vast majority were preceded by hurricanes making landfall; and as soon as the next hurricane made landfall that August, I issued my very first ever EQ Alert when a hurricane struck Johnson Atoll, and that resulted in a major earthquake striking at Northern California in the days immediately following me sending out a paper alert via USPS. That was still 1993, I have since then issued many of these alerts and been very accurate, basically having active alerts prior to every major earthquake occurring since the beginning.
Several years ago I became aware of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and while not submitting to them at first due to the nature of my alerts needing then to be written out in the form of a prediction, I have since started submitting to them in this new format. Note that my method for writing is more along the line of alerting the people to the fact that conditions exist for potential seismic activity to occur and NOT that I am in essence “Predicting” an earthquake per se. Therefore I do not necessarily “Predict” that an earthquake is going to happen as much as I wish to “Alert” the people that there may be an earthquake striking in a given place in a given time frame. So, as a result of all that, I want everyone to know that what you are now reading here, is one of my “Alerts” written out in the format of a “prediction” but I do not want to come off that I am “Predicting” an earthquake, rather, I am today just trying to tell everybody that severe winter conditions have been found to precede major earthquakes and that we are presently experiencing severe winter conditions, so. . . .
Finally, the number of days that it takes for all of that snow to push down on the tectonic plate and cause the plate boundaries to push against one another has been discussed in great depth. What I have came up with so far is that it does seem to be an actual measurable amount, however when we are talking about the shorter distance like that from New York to Los Angeles, rather than that from Louisiana up over the North Pole to Islamabad or from Taiwan, north past Russia, down through the Atlantic Ridge, across Central America, and south to Santiago, Chile. . . We have a great difference in the amount of time it will then take potential seismic energy to travel such a distance!!! Therefore, at this point in time, I prefer to just go with smaller numbers of days for shorter distances such as across the USA, while recognizing the fact that much greater distances can take much longer numbers of days, and as would be the case if this major earthquake does not strike California in this minimum number of days, it will still strike. . . Just that it will then be somewhere else like Japan, and possibly at a date beyond the date of January 12, 2010 as mentioned as the end date of this Official Prediction.
There is probably a given amount of time for seismic energy to travel different routes, such as we already know that seismic energy travels at different speeds through different types of rock and that, at this time I prefer to simply sum up that discussion by expressing the range of numbers of days that this upcoming Major Earthquake Prediction for California will be effective, or sometime between the date of this writing and January 12, 2010. Therein giving you a general idea of the number of days it should take for the ground to settle out on the East Coast and push the North American Tectonic Plate up against the Pacific Tectonic Plate out at or near the San Andreas Fault.
Also, the San Andreas Fault is primarily a Slip Fault, and the type of force being generated with this “Weight on the Tectonic Plate” might rather cause the two tectonic plates to push together instead tending more to activate Thrust Faults out there at that plate boundary. Therefore, while such pushing action might cause some movement along that slip fault such as may happen when the North American plate pushes or moves at all, the main source of movement might tend to be at thrust faults out along the California coast, such as are found around Malibu and Long Beach just to guess at two of them!!!
This is why I say this type of plate tectonic mechanism might begin movement at about any time now, and I state the number of total days that this earthquake should strike within as a number similar to how long it took the other major earthquakes to strike after all the winter conditions. As a general rule I have been using like a week or so for the short distances such as across the U.S.. For instance it was Day 18 after Hurricane Hugo made landfall at Charleston, when the World Series earthquake struck San Francisco and like a good week or two after the major snow events struck that the Paso Robles earthquake occurred. Of course it is generally going to take at least a day or so, however ground settling and tectonic plate boundaries grinding against one another will never have an exact amount of days that it takes to cause a major release of seismic energy!!! It is ALSO always possible that this type of plate tectonic movement could RELEASE built-up seismic energy somewhere along that series of fault lines around California and cause this to be a larger earthquake than just the one caused by the great amounts of snowfall. That is that the snowfall could push a portion of tectonic plate to thus release a much more majorly built up seismic energy somewhere and cause who knows what to happen.
The exact amount of Richters Magnitude for this now upcoming major earthquake, I generally assume will be smallish, for smaller amounts of hurricane, typhoon, cyclone, or in this case blizzard conditions; medium sized for medium amounts of conditions; and big for big amounts of conditions; and huge for huge conditions. In the case of the potential seismic energy that I am writing about today, I would not expect this upcoming major earthquake to be as big or certainly not bigger than the Northridge earthquake and not as big as the Kobe, Japan earthquake. Therefore I am saying today that this major earthquake that I am filing todays Official Prediction with CEPEC on, should be about 7.5 Richters Magnitude. That number could increase slightly for every additional few inches of snow received across the country, or about one tenth Richter per additional inch of snow providing it covers a substantial region.
It should be noted that this Official Prediction is talking about a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE that WILL OCCUR!!! While the basis for this Official Prediction being written is for it to be submitted to the State of California, the potential for this major earthquake to occur does not stop at California, nor does it stop after the expiration of this Official Prediction at the date of January 12, 2010 as stated at the top of this report. Although in general, the Official Prediction will conclude upon such a major earthquake striking California, the alert for such an earthquake will continue on in the event that no earthquake strikes California in accordance with this Official Prediction.
Thank-You, again, for accepting this Official Prediction and helping if not today, than at some time in the future, to alert the people when there is potential seismic energy heading for them!!!!!
Respectfully Submitted,
The EQ Alert Guy
EQ/eq
Monday, December 21, 2009
MAJOR ALERT!!!!! WEST COAST!!!!! USA!!!!!
The numbers are coming in and it looks like they got a huge amount of snow along the East Coast of the United States!!! Enough that we should now be very concerned that it will almost certainly cause the plate boundary along the Pacific Tectonic Plate to move at the San Andreas Fault!!!
The first thing we should be watching for is at least one noteworthy earthquake around Richmond, Virginia or Washington, D.C. and New York City/Boston Region since this is the general area where they got all the snow. One good sized earthquake around that region, say 5 or 6 Richters will then start this new seismic energy to begin traveling west to Los Angeles, San Francisco, California, and Seattle/Oregon where the release of all this potential seismic energy could mean a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE as large as 7.1 to 7.9 Richters Magnitude in about the coming 7 days!!!
Note that this enormous amount of snowfall WILL cause this plate tectonic movement, and that this major earthquake WILL STRIKE!!! It is basically just a matter of when and exactly where. Japan and Alaska are not out of the question down the road more days, since they are both prior locations of major winter snowfall resultants and at least one on my watch!!! Thank-You for reading and helping to Alert The People that there is now a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE heading for them!!!!!
The EQ Alert Guy
The first thing we should be watching for is at least one noteworthy earthquake around Richmond, Virginia or Washington, D.C. and New York City/Boston Region since this is the general area where they got all the snow. One good sized earthquake around that region, say 5 or 6 Richters will then start this new seismic energy to begin traveling west to Los Angeles, San Francisco, California, and Seattle/Oregon where the release of all this potential seismic energy could mean a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE as large as 7.1 to 7.9 Richters Magnitude in about the coming 7 days!!!
Note that this enormous amount of snowfall WILL cause this plate tectonic movement, and that this major earthquake WILL STRIKE!!! It is basically just a matter of when and exactly where. Japan and Alaska are not out of the question down the road more days, since they are both prior locations of major winter snowfall resultants and at least one on my watch!!! Thank-You for reading and helping to Alert The People that there is now a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE heading for them!!!!!
The EQ Alert Guy
Friday, December 18, 2009
December 23 Was The Day of The Paso Robles Earthquake!!!
With December 23 now coming up again very soon, here, i just thought I would send along a reminder that we have been getting and are getting more, somewhat wintery conditions and what seems like to me to be a lot of snow. Therefore now is a good time for me to mention that i did happen to have an alert very similar to this one you are reading, out in the days prior to the Paso Robles Earthquake in 2003!!!
In that alert as well as a couple other similar ones in the days before December 23, I mentioned that a lot of the other major wintertime earthquakes were preceded by the most severe winter conditions including several feet of snow, extreme sub-zero cold, and some high winds. While these conditions do not entirely exist today, we don't seem to have quite as much snow or the persistant sub-zero cold, i thought i should just at least mention that December 23 is coming up so that everybody is aware that there could be a smaller earthquake striking our West Coast. I might say 6 to 7 Richters. Thank-You again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
In that alert as well as a couple other similar ones in the days before December 23, I mentioned that a lot of the other major wintertime earthquakes were preceded by the most severe winter conditions including several feet of snow, extreme sub-zero cold, and some high winds. While these conditions do not entirely exist today, we don't seem to have quite as much snow or the persistant sub-zero cold, i thought i should just at least mention that December 23 is coming up so that everybody is aware that there could be a smaller earthquake striking our West Coast. I might say 6 to 7 Richters. Thank-You again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Small Alert--Severe Winter Conditions
I just got done shoveling a foot of snow up here at my moms house in Wisconsin and figured it is now time to alert the people that "Weight on the Tectonic Plate" can also cause a certain amount of potential seismic energy.
So, just be aware that the weight of a lot of snow alone, depending if they get a lot more on the East Coast, can cause the North American plate to shift towards the San Andreas Fault and probably cause some bumping and grinding out along our West Coast.
Not a real big earthquake at this point, since the Northridge, Kobe, and great Alaska earthquakes, were all preceded by huge winter storms with like about two feet of snow across the whole country. . . this one hasn't been quite that bad. Thank-You for reading!!! EQ Guy
So, just be aware that the weight of a lot of snow alone, depending if they get a lot more on the East Coast, can cause the North American plate to shift towards the San Andreas Fault and probably cause some bumping and grinding out along our West Coast.
Not a real big earthquake at this point, since the Northridge, Kobe, and great Alaska earthquakes, were all preceded by huge winter storms with like about two feet of snow across the whole country. . . this one hasn't been quite that bad. Thank-You for reading!!! EQ Guy
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
FULL MOON--No Alert!!! ALL CLEAR--Very, Very Soon!!!!!
Yes, I just noticed out the window that tomorrow night will be the night of the full moon!!! So I thought today I should write just this quick reminder that even though there is going to be a full moon situation scheduled for like tomorrow night, actually tonight since it turned over to Wednesday like 12 minutes ago, even though it will be the night of a full moon I do not expect any abnormal amount of seismic energy to strike anywhere.
And as far as the final earthquake alert of the Hurricane-Typhoon season. . . that will be running out between December 9th and December 12th and there's probably no reason to even wait for anything to happen with that either, since we were only talking about winds of 95 mph in the first place and I generally don't begin to track anything until the winds reach 100. Tracked that one basically because the maximum gusts were reported at 115 to 120 mph. All Clear coming at the end of next week, provided no major windstorms do any damage between now and then!
Thank-You all again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
And as far as the final earthquake alert of the Hurricane-Typhoon season. . . that will be running out between December 9th and December 12th and there's probably no reason to even wait for anything to happen with that either, since we were only talking about winds of 95 mph in the first place and I generally don't begin to track anything until the winds reach 100. Tracked that one basically because the maximum gusts were reported at 115 to 120 mph. All Clear coming at the end of next week, provided no major windstorms do any damage between now and then!
Thank-You all again for reading!!! The EQ Alert Guy
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