Tuesday, December 22, 2009


Tuesday December 22, 2009

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

The EQ Alert Guy



It has been a very, very long time since the conditions existed that make it necessary for me to file one of these Official Predictions with the Council. One of the biggest reasons for this is because we have not had too much of a hurricane season in the U.S., or much of a typhoon season either for that matter, while the typhoons we did get seemed to have caused seismic activities primarily in other places around the world.

Whenever there is basically any potential seismic energy at all that I feel might affect The State of California in just about any way at all, I immediately write all out a full discussion such as the one you are now reading, and I spell out in some detail everything that is going on that warrants me filing an Official Prediction with CEPEC.

Todays Official Prediction is based entirely on the fact that a great deal of the United States has just received what is turning out to be a huge amount of snow. Amounts of up to two feet and more were just recorded late this week out on the East Coast, and the Midwest had just previously received snow amounts in the area of one foot with more having fallen since then, and more on the way!!!

Generally, my “Snowfall Resultant” predictions are based on the fact that I was writing scripts for my friends out in Hollywood on the day of the Northridge earthquake in 1993 when I decided that I should do something to help them and so what I decided to do was see what all the things were that happened before that earthquake to hopefully possibly determine what caused that earthquake. What I found by searching the recent newspapers was extreme severe winter conditions all across the United States. These conditions, I reasoned, must have contributed to the plate tectonics movement that then caused the boundary between the North American Tectonic Plate and the Pacific Tectonic Plate to be pushed together!!! The snowfall amounts on that day had been up to four feet in the Sierras and two feet across the rest of the country. The difference between the weather on that day back in 1993 and the weather today is mostly that we were experiencing sub-zero temperatures back then, as well. Higher wind speeds existed at that time, too, like around 55 mph, or you might just say blizzard conditions.

Thereafter, I watched closely for similar conditions to exist, and in December 2003 we again received similar severe winter conditions with a lot of snow and as a result I sent out one of my first alerts based on that information. This alert was followed closely by a major earthquake at Paso Robles, California on December 23,. 2003.

Although my initial investigation on the day of the Northridge earthquake revealed, when I went to the local library to investigate all earthquakes for things that preceded them, that the vast majority were preceded by hurricanes making landfall; and as soon as the next hurricane made landfall that August, I issued my very first ever EQ Alert when a hurricane struck Johnson Atoll, and that resulted in a major earthquake striking at Northern California in the days immediately following me sending out a paper alert via USPS. That was still 1993, I have since then issued many of these alerts and been very accurate, basically having active alerts prior to every major earthquake occurring since the beginning.

Several years ago I became aware of the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and while not submitting to them at first due to the nature of my alerts needing then to be written out in the form of a prediction, I have since started submitting to them in this new format. Note that my method for writing is more along the line of alerting the people to the fact that conditions exist for potential seismic activity to occur and NOT that I am in essence “Predicting” an earthquake per se. Therefore I do not necessarily “Predict” that an earthquake is going to happen as much as I wish to “Alert” the people that there may be an earthquake striking in a given place in a given time frame. So, as a result of all that, I want everyone to know that what you are now reading here, is one of my “Alerts” written out in the format of a “prediction” but I do not want to come off that I am “Predicting” an earthquake, rather, I am today just trying to tell everybody that severe winter conditions have been found to precede major earthquakes and that we are presently experiencing severe winter conditions, so. . . .

Finally, the number of days that it takes for all of that snow to push down on the tectonic plate and cause the plate boundaries to push against one another has been discussed in great depth. What I have came up with so far is that it does seem to be an actual measurable amount, however when we are talking about the shorter distance like that from New York to Los Angeles, rather than that from Louisiana up over the North Pole to Islamabad or from Taiwan, north past Russia, down through the Atlantic Ridge, across Central America, and south to Santiago, Chile. . . We have a great difference in the amount of time it will then take potential seismic energy to travel such a distance!!! Therefore, at this point in time, I prefer to just go with smaller numbers of days for shorter distances such as across the USA, while recognizing the fact that much greater distances can take much longer numbers of days, and as would be the case if this major earthquake does not strike California in this minimum number of days, it will still strike. . . Just that it will then be somewhere else like Japan, and possibly at a date beyond the date of January 12, 2010 as mentioned as the end date of this Official Prediction.

There is probably a given amount of time for seismic energy to travel different routes, such as we already know that seismic energy travels at different speeds through different types of rock and that, at this time I prefer to simply sum up that discussion by expressing the range of numbers of days that this upcoming Major Earthquake Prediction for California will be effective, or sometime between the date of this writing and January 12, 2010. Therein giving you a general idea of the number of days it should take for the ground to settle out on the East Coast and push the North American Tectonic Plate up against the Pacific Tectonic Plate out at or near the San Andreas Fault.

Also, the San Andreas Fault is primarily a Slip Fault, and the type of force being generated with this “Weight on the Tectonic Plate” might rather cause the two tectonic plates to push together instead tending more to activate Thrust Faults out there at that plate boundary. Therefore, while such pushing action might cause some movement along that slip fault such as may happen when the North American plate pushes or moves at all, the main source of movement might tend to be at thrust faults out along the California coast, such as are found around Malibu and Long Beach just to guess at two of them!!!

This is why I say this type of plate tectonic mechanism might begin movement at about any time now, and I state the number of total days that this earthquake should strike within as a number similar to how long it took the other major earthquakes to strike after all the winter conditions. As a general rule I have been using like a week or so for the short distances such as across the U.S.. For instance it was Day 18 after Hurricane Hugo made landfall at Charleston, when the World Series earthquake struck San Francisco and like a good week or two after the major snow events struck that the Paso Robles earthquake occurred. Of course it is generally going to take at least a day or so, however ground settling and tectonic plate boundaries grinding against one another will never have an exact amount of days that it takes to cause a major release of seismic energy!!! It is ALSO always possible that this type of plate tectonic movement could RELEASE built-up seismic energy somewhere along that series of fault lines around California and cause this to be a larger earthquake than just the one caused by the great amounts of snowfall. That is that the snowfall could push a portion of tectonic plate to thus release a much more majorly built up seismic energy somewhere and cause who knows what to happen.

The exact amount of Richters Magnitude for this now upcoming major earthquake, I generally assume will be smallish, for smaller amounts of hurricane, typhoon, cyclone, or in this case blizzard conditions; medium sized for medium amounts of conditions; and big for big amounts of conditions; and huge for huge conditions. In the case of the potential seismic energy that I am writing about today, I would not expect this upcoming major earthquake to be as big or certainly not bigger than the Northridge earthquake and not as big as the Kobe, Japan earthquake. Therefore I am saying today that this major earthquake that I am filing todays Official Prediction with CEPEC on, should be about 7.5 Richters Magnitude. That number could increase slightly for every additional few inches of snow received across the country, or about one tenth Richter per additional inch of snow providing it covers a substantial region.

It should be noted that this Official Prediction is talking about a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE that WILL OCCUR!!! While the basis for this Official Prediction being written is for it to be submitted to the State of California, the potential for this major earthquake to occur does not stop at California, nor does it stop after the expiration of this Official Prediction at the date of January 12, 2010 as stated at the top of this report. Although in general, the Official Prediction will conclude upon such a major earthquake striking California, the alert for such an earthquake will continue on in the event that no earthquake strikes California in accordance with this Official Prediction.

Thank-You, again, for accepting this Official Prediction and helping if not today, than at some time in the future, to alert the people when there is potential seismic energy heading for them!!!!!

Respectfully Submitted,
The EQ Alert Guy



Claudia Kim said...

Thank you for your comments. I don't understand, though, how typhoons & hurricanes would affect seismic activity. What does make sense to me is the frequency of occurrence of quakes as a harbinger of more to come. Thoughts?
Claudia N.

Anonymous said...

How do you go about "filing a prediction with CEPEC?" How many have you filed, and what answers have you gotten so far?